Metaculus - Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.

 
MetaculusMetaculus - Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...

The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.Metaculus General Information Description. Developer of a forecasting technology platform designed to generate predictions about future real-world events. The company's platform provides predictions of the probability of future events in systems that can be accurately modeled mathematically or numerically using theoretical constructs, helping clients …On Metaculus' account, these three collectively take up 27% of the total risk faced this century. Forecasters are worried about the existential risk of Artificial Intelligence Recently, some philosophers have pointed out that complete extinction might be of unique moral and civilizational importance compared to those catastrophes from which we ...In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time. Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …Feb 10, 2021 · Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity. Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ... Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ...The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest noteHere's a plot of the Metaculus Strong AGI predictions over time (code by Rylan Schaeffer). The x-axis is the data of the prediction, the y-axis is the predicted year of strong AGI at the time. The blue line is a linear fit. The red dashed line is a y = x line.Feb 25, 2022 · This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...on Aug 13, 2022, 12:14 PM. NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch. Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch …Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …The most recent Metaculus average of 1,170 forecasters is that “the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested and publicly announced” in …Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S. election! We solicited probabilistic predictions about risks to the U.S. general election on 3 November 2020, … Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...Donald Trump. This page is dedicated to collecting and preserving a list of important public predictions made by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States. Linked Questions, displayed alongside public predictions, enable direct comparison with Metaculus community forecasts, thereby creating a more informed public discourse. Biden's approval rating has remained from 45% to 40% from September 2021 to June 2022, and the US Inflation rate reached 8.5% in 2022. Vice President Kamala Harris, often speculated as being likely to run in 2024, has had a net -10% approval rating from January to June 2022. As of June 2022, no other candidates have expressed intent to run, and ... The most recent Metaculus average of 1,170 forecasters is that “the first weakly general AI system will be devised, tested and publicly announced” in …2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories.for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024. via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source. For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" …Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The …The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the …For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with … The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... 538. This is 28 elections with 14979 electors, of which 17 were faithless (occurring in 11 separate elections). That equates to just under 40% of elections in this period having at least one faithless elector. It also gives a 0.1135% chance of any given elector being faithless. With 538 electors in 2024, it would suggest a 61% chance of at ...Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ... Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize. The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthrough. In 2022, I ranked 41st out of 4184 Metaculus forecasters for …Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!Metaculus Journal James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Matthews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Last March, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was faltering and President Vladimir Putin was issuing nuclear threats, I tweeted my skepticism of efforts to estimate ...for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024. via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source. For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" … Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. On Metaculus' account, these three collectively take up 27% of the total risk faced this century. Forecasters are worried about the existential risk of Artificial Intelligence Recently, some philosophers have pointed out that complete extinction might be of unique moral and civilizational importance compared to those catastrophes from which we ...This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map The Metaculus Lens on AI. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the … Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective …Project Summary. The Keep Virginia Safe Tournament was a joint effort between Metaculus and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) Questions were developed collaboratively between the partners in order to obtain insights that would maximize usefulness to policy makers. Questions spanned 4 focus areas, …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …Griffith energy services, Hoge auction, Bank of dave burnley savings and loans, People's united login, Santos coffee, Katapult.cuba, Sky zone everett, Norfolk admirals virginia, Lowes ashtabula ohio, The cliffs south carolina, Houston flat, Tobacco co, Mac and choose, Belleville walmart

An unexpected number of cases of mpox (monkeypox) have begun appearing in multiple countries since early May 2022, prompting expressions of concern from some public health agencies. This project hosts all …. Coastal academy

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To gather available evidence about near-term nuclear risk, i.e. the risk from the detonation of nuclear weapons within the year 2022, Metaculus created a confidential forecasting project and recruited a group of 13 experienced forecasters – we will call them Metaculus Pro Forecasters in this report – to forecast on relevant nuclear risk ...The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …As of June 2018, several people have reached milestones in human lifespans: 46 people have reached the age of 115. 19 people have reached the age of 116. 9 people have reached the age of 117. 2 people have lived beyond the age of 117. Only one person is verified to have lived to 120, and they lived to 122. Histogram.Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ...I chose all questions from the Metaculus Forecasting AI Progress that have already been resolved and have more than 5 upvotes. This cutoff is ultimately arbitrary but I felt like many questions below it were confusing or already answered by other predictions. In total this leaves 22 questions that I put into four categories: compute, arxiv ...We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a … The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... The New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and polling indicates a closer race than that of Iowa. As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%. The Community Prediction was hidden for 14 hours, and …Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ... Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Prediction markets. Manifold Market seems to think, that there is an 62% chance that GPT-5 will come out before 2025. Similarly, Metaculus puts the announcement date of GPT-5 to Sept 2024: [2] So it seems like the forecasting sites expect a strong deviation from the historical trend. Note, that if GPT-5 takes as long as GPT-4 did, we … Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S. election! We solicited probabilistic predictions about risks to the U.S. general election on 3 November 2020, …Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as the population-weighted average life expectancy at birth in G7 countries in the respective years, according to Our World In Data. For example, for 2020 this weighted average was 80.3 (whereas the unweighted average was 81.5). The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and prediction markets, where users can propose, vote, and comment on various topics. Learn how to use Metaculus's … Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The …May 23, 2023, 5:42 AM. A credible source reported that PM Rishi Sunak favours a general election in Oct or Nov 2024. The article goes into some detail on why this seems likely and I concur. Additionally, although unpopular Sunak is very unlikely to face any challenges to his leadership this year due to the political upheaval of the last 12+ …This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ...Resolution Criteria. This question resolves positively if the United States is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by ...Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.This will resolve on the basis of the mean R0 that is estimated for the Omicron variant according to the first credible systematic review that estimates this value. Such a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate R0 estimates from at least 3 studies. An example is the systematic review by Liu and …538. This is 28 elections with 14979 electors, of which 17 were faithless (occurring in 11 separate elections). That equates to just under 40% of elections in this period having at least one faithless elector. It also gives a 0.1135% chance of any given elector being faithless. With 538 electors in 2024, it would suggest a 61% chance of at ...How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …The tournament starts on 14th of December 2020, and ends approximately in June 2021, though different rounds will start and end at different dates and are subject to change. Participants are not permitted to participate on other platforms that are running the same questions, such as Hypermind. Metaculus will decide the final …2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ...Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted .... Finfolk, Midlothian funeral home, George's restaurant waco texas, Hillary farr, Camp kulaqua, La esquina del sabor, Lucky leaf spokane, Fritz's railroad restaurant, Haven golf course.